Commentary: US push to buy Greenland could create an opening for China

 Now that United States President Donald Trump is making good on some campaign pledges, like sweeping tariffs levied against Canada, Mexico and China, the question is whether he will follow through on other ideas. How far might he take his desire to buy Greenland?

Mr Trump cites China as a justification for acquiring this autonomous territory of Denmark. And his insistence - to the point that a recent phone call with the Danish prime minister was described as “horrendous” - has raised eyebrows in Beijing, where officials and scholars are trying to decipher what Mr Trump wants and what it means for China.

“We need it for international security,” he said on his first day in office. “You have Russian boats all over the place, you have China’s boats all over the place - warships.”

Beijing’s ambitions in the Arctic are real. China brands itself a “near-Arctic state”.

The country has been pursuing regional partnerships through a “Polar Silk Road” plan to create faster shipping routes and research projects that could have dual-use applications (for both civilian and military purposes). Greenland’s vast reserves of rare earth minerals - critical for high-tech industries from electric vehicles to missile systems - could make it an attractive target for Chinese investment.  

CHINA’S SYMBOLIC FOOTPRINT

But China’s actual footprint in Greenland is more symbolic than substantial, for now. Once-promising investments have fizzled due to financial problems and political pushback.

In recent years, the Danish government has revoked the mining license of a Chinese firm for non-operation and successfully opposed a Chinese state-owned enterprise’s bid to build airports in Greenland. Just last month, the Swedish National China Centre declared that "China has already quit Greenland".

Greenland is now firmly in the Western camp when it comes to US-China strategic competition.

The US is Greenland’s largest source of foreign direct investment, the European Union is its primary trade partner, and it runs a significant trade surplus with China. Washington has a distinct military edge over China through its Pituffik Space Base on the island’s northwest coast, under a defence agreement with Denmark.

Beijing’s ambitions to open Arctic trading routes now focus on the Russian side of the Arctic Sea, suggesting China’s Arctic shipping traffic may not concentrate around Greenland.