Trump taking on Modi risks worst of both worlds

 Secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil were meant to be the bunker buster in Washington’s sanctions armoury, a weapon so devastating it would cripple Moscow’s economy.

Yet by appearing to punish India alone, Donald Trump risks squandering its impact. He may end up with the worst of all worlds: dropping a bomb too small to do significant damage to Russia while alienating a vital ally and counterweight to China.

After months of resolutely refusing to punish Russia, the US president has changed tack. Convinced that Vladimir Putin has no interest in ending the war in Ukraine, Mr Trump has concluded that targeting Russia’s energy sector – which generates a third of government revenue – is the key pressure point.

“If energy goes down, Putin is going to stop killing people,” he said this week.

India has undeniably helped prop up the Kremlin’s war machine, buying £42bn of Russian oil last year. But other nations have also helped fund Putin’s invasion. China buys more than India, while Turkey, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and even some European Union states are significant consumers.

It is possible that Mr Trump may widen his net in the coming days. He has given Putin until Friday to agree to a ceasefire or face consequences.

Until now, Russia has faced a 10 per cent tariff, the lowest level Mr Trump applies. That figure is almost certain to rise, but with bilateral trade at £3.9bn last year, such a move will barely trouble the Kremlin.

More direct sanctions on Russia’s banks or its shadow tanker fleet could follow, but these too seem unlikely to force a change of course.

Secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could, in theory, bite harder. Yet, by singling out India with a 25 per cent penalty, the weapon has been fired half-cocked.

Analysts speculate that Mr Trump may extend the measures to other countries. If that is his intent, it is curious he would shame India rather than wait 48 hours to announce a broader policy.

The strategy risks misfiring. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, has endured repeated humiliations from a man he once called a friend.

Yet in recent months Mr Trump has imposed higher tariffs on India than on most of its Asian competitors and caused anguish by courting Pakistan, which is closely aligned with China.

With public anger in India growing over Washington’s perceived high-handedness, Mr Modi would find it politically tricky to halt all Russian oil purchases, even if he wished to. Given the importance of the US market for Indian exports, he may have to find a fudge.

Any concession, however, will come at a cost. Analysts say India is now likely to edge closer to China and Russia, weakening one of Washington’s most valuable relationships in Asia.

Even if India reduces imports, it is unclear whether losing a single buyer – even one as important as Delhi – will seriously dent Russia’s war economy.

A policy that leaves Putin undeterred while estranging India is hardly a triumph of statecraft – though final judgment must wait until Mr Trump reveals the rest of his plan.